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Adam Kucharski's avatar

Interesting piece, thanks. Also reminds me of some of the Taleb/Silver arguments from a few years back (https://nautil.us/nassim-talebs-case-against-nate-silver-is-bad-math-237369/). On the calibration point, also feels like having a prediction interval would shed some light on the usefulness of models, e.g. if my current 95% interval for probability of a win is X-Y, then this uncertainty should ideally narrow over time, with my election day probability still within this range (otherwise I’ve potentially been too overconfident/reactive to news along the way).

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Joshua Blake's avatar

I would have thought a reasonable polling average methodology should also be able to predict the outcome of polls, at least over short time horizons (e.g. those currently in the field but not released yet).

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